Will the election results in Maharashtra signal a tectonic shift in Indian politics? One can dismiss them as just another aberration, one that too will pass over. Like so much else that comes and goes. The more likely outcome is that, a new dispensation is more likely, a new order, this disruption having come around in India’s financial capital, home to India’s big industry and commerce. Let us examine some likely fallouts. The first one is in the fortunes of the leaders who fought their way in these polls, who put their necks out? So, as a starter, what the poll outcomes mean for our leaders?
Narendra Modi
It was a resounding victory for the BJP in Maharashtra. A drubbing for the opposition that will not be forgotten for a long time to come. It has reset much of the hasty conclusions that had been made after the Lok Sabha elections. That the PM’s charm was waning, that he was now less of a vote catcher. The state elections have cemented Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s position as India’s most influential political leader. If there was any challenge to him within the party, within the country, it has been cast aside for now. Modi remains the most charismatic single leader in the country. Many of his claims may sound empty for those in opposition, but the people at large do believe that he delivers. If he did not, how else would be keep winning state after state? There is no denying that the Maharashtra victory would enhance his capital in the country’s commercial hub. Also do not forget that Maharashtra is second only to Uttar Pradesh in political significance. Did he stay away from the polls, seeking instead to make limited forays into the state? Did he re-calibrate his exposure to the state, allowing others to lead a collective charge for the party? Regardless, it is beyond doubt the first credit would have to go to PM Modi.
The likely fallout is that PM Modi will become more emboldened in his resolve to bring about the bigger changes, like ONOE, for instance. Now that the Congress has been marginalised again, yet again, especially after the electoral results of the Lok Sabha that many saw as the emergence of the party again, as also a leader among the Opposition parties, the head of the INDIA alliance.
Eknath Shinde
Not too long ago, just only two years ago, he split the Sena in 2022, he took 40 MLAs and some Independents with him, leading to the collapse of the Uddhav Thackeray-led government in the state. Till then, his was a name not much known outside the state. He was perhaps the silent worker, with much of the Sena limelight limited to the Thackeray family. Shinde dared to stand out, take the bull by the horn, join the BJP to form a new government as chief minister.
As his tenure panned out, he emerged as a sobre, yet determined worker, with his ear to the ground. In fact, he won more friends, earned more loyalties. In the same time, his battle with the Thackeray family became a bitter one, with the family feeling outsmarted, left out in the cold; how could a prodigy claim the title of being the heir, when the family was still around? But he claimed he was the real Sena, saying he was the true believer in the philosophy of the founder!
This election has belled the cat. If there was any matter to be settled, Shinde has come out a clear winner. His party won 57 of the 81 seats it contested in the Maharashtra assembly, improving upon the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), which managed just 20 of the 95 it contested. Finally, there was little or no contest left between the two, as who is the ‘real’ Sena has been decided by the people.
It’s a victory of a magnitude that allows Shinde to convincingly establish his claim to the legacy of the Shiv Sena ideology. It also re-establishes Shinde’s Sena as one of the strongest allies of the BJP within the NDA.
UDDHAV THACKERAY
The question of Balasaheb’s legacy was hanging for sometime. The ‘political’, one would say, as Udhav must and does remain his anointed son as legacy. But which is the real Sena? This election has sealed the question for some time to come, unless some new unseen trend emerges. His decision to withdraw from the alliance with BJP in 2019 would come to haunt him. An alliance that his late father had executed with the late Pramod Mahajan of the BJP. He could have accepted the BJP as the emerged dominant partner in the state politics; he could have allowed Devendra Fadnavis become the head of the alliance, bided his time, given space to his son and his heir, Aaditya Thackeray, to grow and be groomed for better times.
Udhav did not do this. He instead broke away, preferring to be the CM himself, not allowing himself or his party to be ‘sidelined’. Now, he stands marginalised, if not left out completely.
How much does the pure Maratha vote in itself count, as a percentage of the whole? Does Udhav have an appeal beyond this traditional bastion? While Balasaheb’s legacy will survive for a long time, his hold over the growing urban class in the state, not just in Mumbai, but in the entire state, could well be waning? It is just possible his time has come to align with ‘other’ forces and give more opportunity to his son to come up in state politics. Whatever, this election has been a definite dampner, a huge loss that presently looks like a complete decimation.
DEVENDRA FADNAVIS
From Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis to becoming the deputy, in a power play that saw the BJP come back to power in a new alliance. Being sidelined, as being only one of the two deputy CMs, it must have been a most chastening experience. A favourite of Nagpur, the power house behind the BJP, the party saw in him a young leader, with a clean slate, with a bright future, or the future face of the party in the state. Fadnavis became a victim of the BJP-Shiv Sena break in 2019 on who would be CM. Fadnavis is decidedly back and back with a bang. He has friends across his own party, has a rich and successful track record as an administrator, has shown ability to survive through adverse circumstances, has guided his party through these elections on the ground, and won a landslide. While a number of factors would have contributed to this tornado like victory, there is no denying the role played by Fadnavis. He has a big future ahead of him. He has emerged a clear winner from these elections.
SHARAD PAWAR & FAMILY
One can only feel sad for this wily and most successful politician of Maharasthra in recent times. He had more than hinted it was going to be his last ‘active’ election in which he will involve himself, and one had hoped he would fare better. His party stood challenged with both his nephew, Ajit Pawar, and most consistent prodigy over time, Praful Patel, have split from him, challenged his supremacy over the NCP tag. It is a cruel twist of fate for the senior Pawar that he not only lost but looks decimated, just as Udhav does in his own party of his father! Sharad Pawar has for long been a most pivotal figure not only in the state bit also in national politics, he has figured as a leader across parties that could convince and broker alliances. His legacy in terms of ability to last out, carry influence both among the young and old, he has often been looked up to as a central figure to bring consensus. This election however has raised the question for the future for him, his followers and also for his close family. The bruising defeat has put the question starkly – who is his successor? His daughter has enduring connections in the capital but then much was based upon her father’s standing and durability. How much she can stand on her own strength remains to be seen. Will she have the strength, winnability and acceptability to rebuild her father’s legacy as a stand-alone party? Or, will she fare better to merge with the Congress and give them too a more dependable leader in the state politics, not to forget that leaders like Ashok Chauhan left the party recently. Or, better still, mend fences with her cousin Ajit Pawar? Time will tell. How much Sharad Pawar is able to achieve after the polls, remains to be seen, but for now, his clout and shine wear a worn look.
Meanwhile, Ajit Pawar, riding on the wave of success of his alliance partner, the BJP, has emerged a true winner. He presently holds the trump card in the NCP, as a party, going forward. One can expect a further exodus to his party from the Sharad Pawar unit.
RAHUL GANDHI
It has been a most unfortunate election result for the LOP, who had taken this assignment so seriously. His career has been witnessing a see-saw much like his earlier commitment to politics that saw him ebb and flow, in making his appearances, then disappear, often on foreign jaunts. Those times have been put behind him, as the reluctant politician in the power play. His Bharat Yatra performances not only gave him a new dimension but also grounded him, so to say. Nothing like having your ear to the ground, these yatras perhaps gave him an understanding of the common man, like it was impossible to grasp in such a short time. The Lok Sabha elections gave his party almost double their earlier number of seats in parliament, catapulting him to the position of the leader of the opposition, a leader with cabinet rank, with his own chamber in Parliament.
But then he has been prone to losing so much so often, after gaining every now and then. This is another sad commentary. If the campaign in the national elections was pivoted around the Constitution, it was not going to get the same traction in state elections. Haryana was lost from the jaws of victory, while everybody said it was a walk over for his party. So much was taken for granted, that the party lost its face. Typically, the party said there would be a detailed analysis for the loss.
In Haryana, was it the factional troubles within the Congress and feuds between its caste leaders that led to a debacle, last minute sabotage that saw often alleged behind the scenes deals, or simply a failure to judge the mood of the electorate? What was it in Maharashtra? Just six months after the same electorate could drub the BJP, in the national elections, so much has been lost by the Congress in underestimating the mood of the people, while fighting the state elections. Wasn’t it said that the issues between national state and state elections were always different? And yet, the party chose to fight on the ‘Constitution is in danger’ fear and slogans around it. These did not matter while the BJP, as the party in power, was busy reaching out to the women and lesser privileged with their welfare schemes. These did the trick for the BJP led alliance and the Congress only helped them.
Clearly, Rahul Gandhi’s image has suffered a severe dent, in his capacity to lead the opposition, which had already become too unwieldy, as regional satraps believe they are better off in minding their established territory, rather than embarking on chewing more than what they can stomach. Should they have to leave their turf, it can only to become the PM, a common goal shared by half a dozen of them. The PM never tires of saying the opposition is only interested in power.
The challenge of rebuilding the Congress has just got harder, the grand old party may once again well be in danger of being on ventilator support. The sooner Rahul Gandhi can get the right prescription, the right medical advice, the better his chances to get back in fighting spirit again. Changing horses for the rest of the ride, which is a long way to go, considering his age, seems to be the best course at this time in the history of Indian politics. Only the Congress can engage with the BJP on the national stage, if India is to get a serious challenger which everybody says every democracy needs.
Rahul Gandhi, fortunately, now has a most formidable ally in his sister, Priyanka, who has won from Wayanad with an epic margin of over 4 lakh votes. How will he turn this to the party’s advantage? The party president Mallikarjun Kharge has turned out to be an enviable choice; he is serious, always worth his words, says the right thing at the right time. The party needs to get back into a ‘chintan’ mode, deliberate deep, devise new ways that provide answers to different aspirations across the country. No single size fits all, and as India grows, so do variations in size!
So, what did the ruling dispensation do right? A few pointers in this direction. And what was the summing statement and learning from this election?
They targeted women with a direct, personalised campaign, built a new segment of supporters who helped it win votes. This created a fresh base that rose above caste and faith, much like the DBT schemes at the centre. This helped dent the opposition claim that the BJP was opposed to any one faith. In effect, the Ladki Bahin became as important as the PM-Kisan, and the direct farm transfer scheme that was implemented six months before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and helped blunt farm anger that was hurting the BJP in the heartland at that time.
Second, PM Narendra Modi’s “Ek Hain Toh Safe Hain (if we stay united, we’ll be safe)” slogan, and with it the ruling alliance started speaking about Hindu unity. This has become the new clarion call, for the BJP, that is bound to find more echo in the days ahead.
Interestingly, the call made by Yogi Adityanath that Batenge ko Katenge while it appealed to some, there were immediate counter calls by a prominent section of the Maharashtra BJP leaders to deny such a course in the state. Fadnavis was in the lead to say that there was no room for such a doctrine in his state. Clearly, as it turned out, the party played to both tunes, those who believed in it, and those who did not.
So, what was the end result? 2024 brought about the sharpest ever mandate for a single party, decimated all opposition so much so that as per rules of the state assembly, there will be no leader of the opposition. It is mandated that the leader of the opposition should have a minimum of 24 seats, which none of the opposition parties do. BJP came out with a sterling performance, its best ever in the state. The Congress performed miserably, its worst ever. These elections also marked the maturing of welfare programmes, freebies and doles – these are here to stay. Initiated by perhaps the AAP first time with its free electricity freebie in Delhi, these are now getting established in the electoral scheme of things, as social welfare programmes that could well uplift the poorer section, making for a slightly more inclusive society. Small steps, perhaps, but a definite one, for sure.